TMF WEIGHS IN ON THE PROS AND CONS OF THE TWILIGHT MOVIE
THR first weighed in with “Will Twilight Exceed the Hype?” The Hollywood Reported followed that article with Twilight Positives Versus Negatives.
Now The Movie Fanatic responds with Predicting the Box Office Success of Twilight- The Pros and the Cons. They break down each issue raised by previous articles. Here is some of what TMF had to say:
Issue #1: Twilight is either a Comic-Con illusion or a box office enigma in the league with Harry Potter. I find this issue to be relatively academic. The most important issue here is whether Twilight fans will support the movie or not.Issue#2: Can a small player like Summit Entertainment produce a studio-style hit? Can a movie franchise be created on modest budgets? A bona fide box office hit! With an infusion of fresh funds, I have to say that Twilight may not have problems when it comes to promoting the movie. There are already reports that Summit is really concentrating its efforts towards the completion of the movie.
While the promotional and ad strategy for Twilight will be very important , especially for those who have not read the book and are outside the so-called Twilight fandom, there is one big advantage the movie already has: the huge Twilight fan base. While this is not a 100% certainty, there is no doubt regarding the fans’ dedication to Meyer’s book. This has been proven time and again and once the movie is released in December, we’ll find out just how committed they really are.
Issue #3a: The books are bestsellers. But are they mega-bestsellers, to the point where readers alone can drive ticket sales, like “The Da Vinci Code” did? The DaVinci Code is reported to have sold 57 million, while the latest Harry Potter book (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows) sold 44 million.
Issue#3b: Boys won’t go because there’s not enough action. Tell that to the Twilight Guy! I don’t think the author is aware that there are hordes of male fans of Twilight. Might I add MTV blogger, Larry Carroll? How about the creators of a number of Twilight sites, including the guys at Twilight Latin America and their male readers.
tMF Analysis: In Summary, I think the analysis at The Hollywood Reporter failed to include one important factor - the fans. tMF began publishing articles about Twilight since late last year. I know the kind of passion and dedication of most Twilight fans. I see no reason why they would be considered fickle and most would be turned off by the differences between the book and the movie adaptation. That is also quite subjective. If you want to make a strong argument, you need to lay down facts and statistics.
At present, the kind of statistics we have are the number of Twilight fan sites already capturing their share of the audience - both the fans and those who are just about to discover the book and the movie.
CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE ARTICLE (They include a quote from Twilighters Anonymous and thank this site for the inspiration to write the article.)
I have to agree with the writer, Jed Medina. I think the Twilight fans have been sorely underestimated. Female fans seeing a movie over and over again is what made Titanic so successful. I believe the same thing will happen with Twilight. I can’t be positive but if Catherine Hardwicke has worked the magic that I believe she’s capable of, we women will want to re-live the Edward and Bella moments many times over. Do you think the fans (male and female) have been underestimated in Twilight’s possible success?
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You’re right… fans are the ingredient to make this a hit.
I don’t know about you, but just the idea that it’s going to be in a cinema will have me and my Twilight friends coming back for more and more, and more……
We SHALL make it a hit! *wishing*
Also, we’ll have to see it more than once due to all the fangirl squeee-ing…
I believe the movie will be a success! (We’re all going to see it more than once, right? LOL) The fact that the fanbase is so rabid only gives the movie a headstart. How many movies can say that? The fact that Twilight looks great can’t help but make it a success.
I do get annoyed that it’s intimated that female movie attendees can’t carry a movie and make it a smashing success. Titanic and Sex and the City more recently are good examples. (Although, I feel like making my husband go at least once just to pad the numbers. Twilight probably isn’t his kind of movie and I can’t squee as much with him sitting next to me so I’ll probably leave him at home for the first time.)
Seriously, I am eager to see the full-length trailer because I think that will tell us a lot about how the movie is to be marketed to the general schmo. I also hope that it will be well received by critics. Anything it takes!! I want the Saga to continue in move form…..
i think they definitely underestimated the fans both female and male alike. i’m new to the whole twilight world and i have myself fallen in love with the book and the idea that i envisioned in my head is going to be on the big screen. whenever anyone asks me what i’m reading i tell that its twilight and i going to the speel about how they must read it. i’ve already convinced my bestfriend and my 25 yr old brother.
the book definitely has enough action to hold anyone, that was one of the main reasons why i made it through all four lenghty books. i’m not a person that reads a book for romance alone and i can say without a doubt that twilight will have any moviegoer caught in the same unbreakable hold that the readers are under.
I agree w/pretty much everyone else so far… and would just like to add some of my thoughts on the matter:
In the movie’s favor: the “rabid” (as it always seems to be referred to) fanbase. I know a lot of ppl are saying “just the fans are not enough to make the movie a hit.” and this is probably true. but I think a lot of ppl are underestimating its power. first of all, there’s the fact that so many of us (myself included) are SO obsessed, and therefore will see the movie AGAIN and AGAIN- I know that I NEVER go see a movie more than once in theaters, yet im planning on seeing this movie at least three times. Im sure that has to be true for others as well- and that means a lot. b/c not only do repeat watchers alone give the movie some staying power, but it also means that more ppl outside the fandom are likely to see the movie, as ppl must find new and different ppl to see the movie w/each time, and they scrounge around 4 ppl not necessarily interested to drag along, thus helping the movie to spread OUTSIDE the original fandom- which everyone seems to agree is important. I think this is one of the most important factors helping out the Twilight movie, as Twilight seems to bring out the most obsessive side in ppl (again, myself included), moreso really than any other book/movie- I mean, a TON of ppl love Harry Potter (many more than Twilight), but most of the fans arent/werent nearly as obsessed as Twilight fans are (I know I wasnt), and I certainly didnt hear about everyone seeing any of the HP movies over and over, as most Twilight fans are planning on doing. It seems to me like the power of such an obsessive/passionant fanbase has been underestimated thus far- after all ppl going to see Titanic over and over is what made it such a blockbuster, so why couldnt the same thing work for Twilight? (not to the same degree, obviously, but it still should count for something)
Then, you have the growing Robert Pattinson fanbase, which seems to be pretty passionant as well- I have heard of many ppl not even interested in Twilight that are planning to see it just b/c of him- and this, too, will help to add more viewers outside the Twilight fanbase, and really work in the movie’s favor. Whether they will see the movie multiple times as the Twilight fans are planning on doing is debatable, but even if they just see it once for Rob it should help.
Now, on the downside: IMO, it doesnt seem like the movie (so far- granted, there’s still time left and the full trailer has yet to be released- 2 days- eep!) has done a very good job of reaching ppl outside either one of these fanbases. I mean, I personally dont know anyone who’s not already either a fan of Twilight or a fan of Rob who’s planning on going to the movie (unless theyre being dragged along by someone who IS a fan), and thats probably not a good sign. It just doesnt seem like Summit (or whoever is in charge) is doing a very good job of advertising to ppl OUTSIDE the fanbases that already exist, which is really kind of stupid, since pretty much everyone in the fanbase has already made up their minds to go see it (or not), so there’s really no reason to advertise to them- they already know everything about it, most likely. So my main concern/fear for the movie’s success is that it will not be advertised enough or in a way which will appeal to ppl who know nothing about it; and if they just see a random preview they will have no desire to see it, and therefore “normal” (or should we say “uninformed”) ppl will not go to see the movie. I am hoping this new trailer will change that, and appeal not necessarily to me so much as just a wide range of unknowledgeable audiences, and be shown in a way which makes unknowledgeable ppl still want to go see it. I remember when I first saw the very first trailer for the first Lord of the Rings movie in theaters, it looked so good that I instantly decided I HAD to read the books, not just see the movie- my highest hope is that the new trailer will be able to inspire such a reaction in ppl, b/c so far, I really dont think the trailers have done any thing like that- to be honest, if I hadnt already loved the books, im not really sure I would want to see the movie just based on the teaser trailers released so far. However, I recognize the fact that they’re just teasers, and hope that that will change w/the full length trailer. I really think a lot of the movie’s success will depend on it. So… here’s hoping
I think we have DEFINITELY been underestimated. This phenomena is GIGANTIC. I am a HUGE, HUGE fan. I’m obessesed I tell you, this is MY heroin. I check all my fav. fan websites (bellandedward.com,twilightersanonymous.com of course, his goldeneyes.com, MTV) it’s an addiction. I can’t stop re-reading the books, it’s sick. And if that’s not enough, I took Twilight Weekend off from work, I plan on seeing it AT LEAST TWICE, including the midnight showing.
I think it will be a success. I don’t have high hopes for the movie being exactly like the book (how often does a movie follow the book verbatim lol)
But since I am a devout Twilight fan. I feel I MUST see the movie no matter what speculation there is. I’ll probably see it more than once too, and I know for a fact that some of my friends are planning to see it with me. We’ve even invited people who have never heard of the books