BOX OFFICE PROPHETS – HOW WELL WILL TWILIGHT DO?
BoxOfficeProphets.com has written an interesting “prophecy” on how well they think Twilight will do at the box office. They delve into book sales and a few other statistics to make their decision, and it seems as though some of their staff has mixed opinions. Some have high hopes, and some aren’t quite convinced yet.
Here’s a bit of what they had to say:
What are you expecting from the box office performance of Twilight?Jason Dean: As a data point, there are more than a few over 18-year-olds that have heard of the Twilight series and are desperately looking forward to the opening.
Jason Lee: A big, big, big part of me sincerely doubts that this movie takes off at the box-office. I know that David has posted information proving me wrong, but I just don’t see the audience for this films skewing wider than your typical fan who goes to see teen-slasher films. The casting of the film and the perceived quality (based on the trailer) will hold it back, I think.
I know that the books sales indicate otherwise, but I would be very surprised to see this film open above $20 million. I think mid-teens is about where it’ll end up.
Les Winan: I see it doing $50+ million minimum. $75 million wouldn’t shock me. My wife, sister, sister-in-law and grandmother are all counting the days.
Daron Aldridge: I fall very much into that over 18 demographic that had never heard of the title, series or author until it showed up on the cover of my Entertainment Weekly. This reminds me of the Eragon from a couple years ago, which was also based upon a novel that skewed young (regardless of the arguably derivative literary merits of Christopher Paolini), opened in the winter holiday season, and had questionable quality but as rabid fandom. That one underperformed domestically opening to $23.2 million. Adjusted for inflation, Eragon earned $25.1 million. So, I can see this one outperforming Tolkien-lite but not by much. I am going with about a guess of a $35 million opening.
Jim Van Nest: Until about three months ago, I’d never heard of Twilight. I met one 14 year-old girl (a friend’s daughter, ya pervs) who is 100% addicted. Since that day, it’s everywhere I go. The best comparisons I can come up with are the Potter series and possibly The Da Vinci Code…though both of these don’t fit AS well as they’re WAY bigger than Bella Swan. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone opened over $90 million in 2001, but there were already four books and they’d been in circulation for four years or so. Da Vinci opened to $77 million, but it had the controversy thing going for it, as well as Tom Hanks and it skewed toward people who can actually drive themselves to theaters.
Aside from all that is the trailer for Twilight, which definitely left me just “whelmed.” They could have told me it was a commercial for the latest CW show and I’d have believed it. Based on the luke-warm trailer and the opening takes of some books that are MUCH larger than this one, I can’t help but think that this opens in the $33 million range, with a ceiling of about $40 million. While this has a gazillion teenage girls excited, I just don’t think that’s a broad enough demographic to push this into the upper echelon of book adaptation openings.
Pete Kilmer: After talking with some of my female friends who are teachers and librarians I think this movie will hit at least $50 million for an opening weekend. All of their friends are super excited about it.
To read the complete article with all their predictions, click here.
I think a lot of the staffers are narrowing down the age range of Twilighters quite a bit. Yes, a lot of younger people do like the books (after all, they are targeted for a YA audience), but I think you have blinders on if you don’t recognize how great the age range is. Having said that, I think Twilight will shock a lot of people at the box office. Even though they have a huge marketing campaign going on, I think people still underestimate it’s ability to appeal to a large audience.
What do you guys think: Do you think they have some valid points in their arguments? And how well do YOU think the movie will do on opening weekend?
